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2013-14 CU MBB SOS Watch (OOC & Pac-12 Opponents)
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
oregon pissed themselves. But Arizona's foundation is cracking.
Ducks blow it at the end. I think that's a good result for us ... pretty much takes UO out of any bubble discussion IMO ... plus leaves what seems to be a now vulnerable but still highly ranked UA team coming to Boulder. What say others?
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Still don't see Oregon out of the bubble discussion. 2 point road loss at Zona doesn't do that. Oregon has a very home heavy schedule remaining and their RPI is 40.
wyobuff
Well-Known Member
In terms of the conference race, not that great. We have 4 losses in conf play right now, that would have been 2 for zona, giving us a chance to hang a third one on them in a few weeks. Maybe we catch them, maybe we dont, but even before tonight, oregon would have had to win out to go 12-6 in conf play. They now have a best possible ending record of 11-7. even if the DID win tonight, I dont think they would have danced. They have 2 conf wins, and consequently they are over the bottom 2 teams (USC, Wazzu). They arent going to be able to get enough wins down the stretch. The only tourney teams they have left on the sched is ucla and zona (home) with potentially ASU (home/away) as tourney teams. other than that, they have the washington schools.
Ducks have played 4 home games and are 1-3 (bay area schools, LA schools)
I think the ducks snuffed themselves out here.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Everyone who thinks Oregon is toast should probably go check out the numbers on bubble teams like LSU, Clemson, Missouri, Ole Miss.
Oregon is not out of the picture.
Oregon is not out of the picture.
wyobuff
Well-Known Member
So the bubble is soft this year?
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Louisiana Tech has an rpi of 80 and is viewed as being very much in the discussion (Lunardi's next 4 out, etc) and there's a host of SEC teams with nothing to offer that are in various states of bubble flux with resumes worse than Oregon's. I agree they're running out of time and they need to go on a run, and soon. However, with their remaining schedule loaded with home games they likely do go on a run. I'm not sure they even need some really awesome Sportscenter win, they just need to win games. Bubble is so weak that the rest sorts itself out. Duck's road win at Ole Miss is a nice ace up their sleeve for any last team in decisions (a la CU getting snubbed while Georgia got in in 2011 because we lost in Athens).
wyobuff
Well-Known Member
I have not scoured the bottom rankings of the bubble, except to look for CU (note: we were in a "play-in" game slot in most recent bracketology today).
I know oregon has a far more favorable schedule remaining than we do, but (to me) they've still only beat UT, Wazzu & USC - our bottom dwellers, and they needed OT and a dumb move by UT to leave SLC with a win.
They are an OK team, but if the bubble is as weak as you're assuming, they'll be ok. If it's not - I'd start to worry if I was in eugene.
I know oregon has a far more favorable schedule remaining than we do, but (to me) they've still only beat UT, Wazzu & USC - our bottom dwellers, and they needed OT and a dumb move by UT to leave SLC with a win.
They are an OK team, but if the bubble is as weak as you're assuming, they'll be ok. If it's not - I'd start to worry if I was in eugene.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
I'm sure they probably are worrying, but they've got time and home games on their side. RPI at 40 is well above the competition.
ps what bracketology were you looking at? Lunardi's update (today) has us a 10, and Bracket Matrix has us the top 9 seed.
ps what bracketology were you looking at? Lunardi's update (today) has us a 10, and Bracket Matrix has us the top 9 seed.
wyobuff
Well-Known Member
ESPN - BPI - Tournament. Link: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/type/tournament
Oregon is in the bottom 4 of the P12 (Utah, USC, Wazzu & OU). They have 3 conf wins right now, against 3 of the bottom 4 (they only team they dont have a W over is themselves).
The have a lot of work to do to dance.
Oregon is in the bottom 4 of the P12 (Utah, USC, Wazzu & OU). They have 3 conf wins right now, against 3 of the bottom 4 (they only team they dont have a W over is themselves).
The have a lot of work to do to dance.
wyobuff
Well-Known Member
I had never seen that one before but I thought it was interesting. I'd hate to be in a play in game.
That said, UT did us a huge favor tonight, and if OSU loses we are going to be alone in 3rd with the bay area schools. That road trip is getting more important every week. Too bad that Stanford didnt recruit (then snub) the hulk like CAL did.
That said, UT did us a huge favor tonight, and if OSU loses we are going to be alone in 3rd with the bay area schools. That road trip is getting more important every week. Too bad that Stanford didnt recruit (then snub) the hulk like CAL did.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Yep, not getting the Bay schools at home this year is a major downer the way we're headed. Ending with 3 straight road games is annoying. I'd rather come on strong late than do damage early, and this schedule makes it extremely hard to accomplish.
wyobuff
Well-Known Member
Remember last time we ended w 3 straight road games (UT Then the Oregon schools IIRC) We were in good shape for an at large, then dropped all 3 of those and had to win the conf tourney to dance.
I like the P12 Scheduling, but we've had 3 home or 3 away games to close every single year. Prefer if we DONT next year.
There is still 6 games between now and our flights to cali. Lets hope we can take care of business and some other teams will do some dirty work for us.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
I want 21 regular season and 10 conference wins in order to rest relatively easy on selection Sunday. Beating UW, USC and ASU is crucial and then find 1 more...anywhere. Every remaining game makes me nervous, but given our road play we can't take anyone for granted (USC) and we've been straight bullied by ASU recently and they'll come into Boulder planning to do it once again unless we say enough is enough. I fear 20 may be our fate, and things get a little dicey there...especially if we have a lifeless Pac12 tournament showing.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Love seeing Bachynski roughed up and having a foul called on him. Asshole
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
OT in Tempe.
Go Beavs!!
Go Beavs!!
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
ASU going to get the win in OT. ****. Golden opportunity missed. ASU now 6-4, OSU 5-5. Hope Oregon can help us by winning in Tempe. Need ASU to get that 5th loss.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
USCB ends the night with an important win at Hawaii. USCB RPI now 87, it's between UCSB and UC Irvine to win the Big West.
They're not toast, but they're going to have to get a lot of Conference wins to finish the year. RPI is great and all, but I believe only 5 teams have had a losing Conference record and still made the Tournament as an At Large team. They need to go 6-2 or better to finish Conference play, as I really don't think they will be the 6th team to pull it off.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Could help our RPI down the road if we beat them, but ASU winning tonight is not good from a Pac12 standings perspective. Have the tiebreaker on OSU and seeing as they play @ Zona next a loss was coming anyway. ASU more of a threat to beat us to the 4 seed than OSU.
Oregon probably needs to win 6. Don't think it's mission impossible with their home heavy ending. Although if there was a year for another at large with a losing conference record, this is it given some B1G schools, Oregon, Baylor, even Oklahoma State is in danger.
The Pac blows this year. This year of "The Pac being back" has just blown up in everyone's faces. Between injuries (Colorado, Arizona), implosion (Oregon) and general incompetence (I'm looking at you Dawkins), no one has really been as good as expected. Except Utah I guess.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Harvard was able to grind out a 52 45 win over Brown. Princeton has completely collapsed in Ivy play after appearing to be the main competition. For the time being Yale is the main threat, hanging around with 1 loss. Harvard's RPI is a very nice 35
Buffs come into today with an RPI of 27 and a SOS of 22.
Games we care about:
Pitt is hosting VA Tech. Pitt's RPI is 23, they're down a point with under 8 minutes left. A loss moves us up.
Virginia is at GA Tech. UVA's RPI is 20. Tied with under 8 minutes left. A loss, again, moves us up.
Texas is at Kansas State. UT's RPI is 24. Tough place to play. Go Wildcats.
KU hosts West Virginia. Kansas needs to keep our win over them as strong as possible. Still #1 in RPI.
Michigan is at Iowa. You wouldn't think it, but Iowa is at #34 RPI and 6-4 in the Big 10. They could get bubbly with a loss while a Hawkeye win could vault them close to passing CU.
CSU is at AFA. We have road wins over both, so it's kind of a wash. CSU is a #141, so there's a chance that could become a Top 100 win if they can get on a mini roll.
Oregon is at ASU. Since we play ASU twice, Sun Devils do more for CU's RPI. But an Oregon win would be better for our conference standings. I can't really bring myself to cheer for either team.
Jackson State hosts Alcorn State. JSU needs to hold serve on its home court. At #274, they're at risk of become a win that hurts our RPI.
Baylor is at Oklahoma. Biggest RPI game of the day for CU. Baylor is at #55. A win gets them back in the Top 50. Oklahoma is at #22. A loss helps the Buffs jump them in the ranks.
Harvard hosts Yale. Harvard is at #35 RPI. Can't afford any home losses to stay in Top 50. Also, Yale is 4-1 in the Ivy with Harvard at 5-0. This one could determine whether Harvard goes to the Dance.
Elon hosts GA Southern. Elon's 13-11 (6-3) at #160 RPI. Very capable of going on a run to over its last 7 Southern Conference games to finish with 20 wins. Favored in all of them. Be great to see them Top 100 and conference champs at the end, but 1st order of business is staying Top 200.
VCU is at St. Joseph's. St. Joe's is capable and VCU is at #26 RPI (right ahead of CU). Let's go, St. Joe's.
Georgia hosts Texas A&M. After being left for dead (RPI in the 300s) when we beat them, UGA has climbed to #125. This is a game they need to make a run at the Top 100 and turn our win into a quality one at selection time.
Washington State is at Utah. I don't think we care in this one. I'll probably root for Utah since I like their coach.
Gonzaga is at Memphia. Zags are #21 RPI. Memphis is #32. They bracked the Buffs. I think we want a Zags loss to give the Buffs a shot at passing them with a win on Sunday.
UT Martin at SIU Edwardsville. UTM (#325) should lose this (SIU-E is 5-5 in conf play). They probably will. But this is also the type of upset that could pull them out of sub-300 ugliness on our resume.
Oklahoma State is at Texas Tech. Tech has been weak this year, but can be dangerous. Okie Lite has fallen to #29 RPI. Despite the risk of a road win pushing them ahead of the Buffs, this is still a game we need them to win. Fortunately, the Big 12 is so strong this year that TTU is #79 so a loss wouldn't be too devastating.
Wyoming is at UNLV. This one's pretty big. UNLV is vulnerable. Wyoming is at #103. Straight into the Top 100 with a win.
UCLA is at USC. Kind of a wash for CU. Bruins are at #19 RPI and Troy is at #129. Theoretically, a USC win would vault CU over UCLA in the RPI while bringing USC into the Top 100. But we play both twice and in the end it probably doesn't matter much to us either way.
Games we care about:
Pitt is hosting VA Tech. Pitt's RPI is 23, they're down a point with under 8 minutes left. A loss moves us up.
Virginia is at GA Tech. UVA's RPI is 20. Tied with under 8 minutes left. A loss, again, moves us up.
Texas is at Kansas State. UT's RPI is 24. Tough place to play. Go Wildcats.
KU hosts West Virginia. Kansas needs to keep our win over them as strong as possible. Still #1 in RPI.
Michigan is at Iowa. You wouldn't think it, but Iowa is at #34 RPI and 6-4 in the Big 10. They could get bubbly with a loss while a Hawkeye win could vault them close to passing CU.
CSU is at AFA. We have road wins over both, so it's kind of a wash. CSU is a #141, so there's a chance that could become a Top 100 win if they can get on a mini roll.
Oregon is at ASU. Since we play ASU twice, Sun Devils do more for CU's RPI. But an Oregon win would be better for our conference standings. I can't really bring myself to cheer for either team.
Jackson State hosts Alcorn State. JSU needs to hold serve on its home court. At #274, they're at risk of become a win that hurts our RPI.
Baylor is at Oklahoma. Biggest RPI game of the day for CU. Baylor is at #55. A win gets them back in the Top 50. Oklahoma is at #22. A loss helps the Buffs jump them in the ranks.
Harvard hosts Yale. Harvard is at #35 RPI. Can't afford any home losses to stay in Top 50. Also, Yale is 4-1 in the Ivy with Harvard at 5-0. This one could determine whether Harvard goes to the Dance.
Elon hosts GA Southern. Elon's 13-11 (6-3) at #160 RPI. Very capable of going on a run to over its last 7 Southern Conference games to finish with 20 wins. Favored in all of them. Be great to see them Top 100 and conference champs at the end, but 1st order of business is staying Top 200.
VCU is at St. Joseph's. St. Joe's is capable and VCU is at #26 RPI (right ahead of CU). Let's go, St. Joe's.
Georgia hosts Texas A&M. After being left for dead (RPI in the 300s) when we beat them, UGA has climbed to #125. This is a game they need to make a run at the Top 100 and turn our win into a quality one at selection time.
Washington State is at Utah. I don't think we care in this one. I'll probably root for Utah since I like their coach.
Gonzaga is at Memphia. Zags are #21 RPI. Memphis is #32. They bracked the Buffs. I think we want a Zags loss to give the Buffs a shot at passing them with a win on Sunday.
UT Martin at SIU Edwardsville. UTM (#325) should lose this (SIU-E is 5-5 in conf play). They probably will. But this is also the type of upset that could pull them out of sub-300 ugliness on our resume.
Oklahoma State is at Texas Tech. Tech has been weak this year, but can be dangerous. Okie Lite has fallen to #29 RPI. Despite the risk of a road win pushing them ahead of the Buffs, this is still a game we need them to win. Fortunately, the Big 12 is so strong this year that TTU is #79 so a loss wouldn't be too devastating.
Wyoming is at UNLV. This one's pretty big. UNLV is vulnerable. Wyoming is at #103. Straight into the Top 100 with a win.
UCLA is at USC. Kind of a wash for CU. Bruins are at #19 RPI and Troy is at #129. Theoretically, a USC win would vault CU over UCLA in the RPI while bringing USC into the Top 100. But we play both twice and in the end it probably doesn't matter much to us either way.