2013-14 CU MBB SOS Watch (OOC & Pac-12 Opponents)

[Deleted member 807]

Not looking forward to playing Utah. They put a beating on ASU tonight.

There are no easy games at the Huntsman Center. Solid block U win tonight. Twenty plus wins and a better than 500 conference record is within reach.

No way CU will be overlooking the Utes (18-9, 7-8) after that statement win.

 

[wyobuff]

No cracks about dotson getting popped for using a fake id trying to get into a bar? You guys have slipped.

 

[CVilleBuff]

CU enters the week at 26 in RPI. We're ahead of squads like Louisville, Iowa, UConn, Memphis and Gonzaga, just FYI for those who may be nervous about a Dance ticket. We were 40 places below this (66) on Selection Sunday 2011.

 

[rolandftw]

CU enters the week at 26 in RPI. We're ahead of squads like Louisville, Iowa, UConn, Memphis and Gonzaga, just FYI for those who may be nervous about a Dance ticket. We were 40 places below this (66) on Selection Sunday 2011.

Almost seem to be the opposite of the 2010-2011 team. Have the very good RPI but not near the amount of wins against tourney caliber teams. I'll feel less nervous if they can take down Stanford or Cal.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Almost seem to be the opposite of the 2010-2011 team. Have the very good RPI but not near the amount of wins against tourney caliber teams. I'll feel less nervous if they can take down Stanford or Cal.

Any win will make me rest comfortably. Given what other teams are doing, it's hard to see how we'd fall all the way out even losing these next 3. Unless we show some poise on the road against teams with a pulse (we haven't seen that yet this season except for 1 half at UCLA), we'd better be ready to take down USC or Wazzu in Vegas though.

Really holding out hope the combination of CU being pissed and Utah sitting on a big win for a week feeling content leads to a situation on Saturday where we want it more and go get it. Regarding the Bay Area schools, Stanford has been playing better than Cal lately, but it changes on like a weekly basis. Hopefully we catch one of them snoozing, which both are prone to do fairly often, even at home.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Also, while I agree a top 4 seed is now unlikely, keep in mind Cal and Stanford will both be picking up at least one loss this week (@ Zona) and Cal, Stanford and ASU will be cannibalizing each other. If we can win at Utah, the standings will look pretty nice heading into the Bay Area.

 

[rolandftw]

Any win will make me rest comfortably. Given what other teams are doing, it's hard to see how we'd fall all the way out even losing these next 3. Unless we show some poise on the road against teams with a pulse (we haven't seen that yet this season except for 1 half at UCLA), we'd better be ready to take down USC or Wazzu in Vegas though.

I dunno, 9-9 in Conference play, with a 1-7 record against the Top 5 Conference opponents, would make me very nervous.

Considering all of the losses so far have been blowouts, I think at minimum, they need to at least play close games against Cal/Stanford

 

[cubuffs85]

I dunno, 9-9 in Conference play, with a 1-7 record against the Top 5 Conference opponents, would make me very nervous.

Considering all of the losses so far have been blowouts, I think at minimum, they need to at least play close games against Cal/Stanford

It's an evolving thing but they *should* get in with one more win (and bad losses in the P12 Tourney), it's possible they could be on the bubble if they go 1-2. If were a 10th seed now, we should be a 11th seed or so, if they go that path. A single win or loss isn't likely to bring you up or down more than entire seed (so four spots on the S curve).

 

[Daaah]

CU enters the week at 26 in RPI. We're ahead of squads like Louisville, Iowa, UConn, Memphis and Gonzaga, just FYI for those who may be nervous about a Dance ticket. We were 40 places below this (66) on Selection Sunday 2011.

I'm not worried about our current RPI, but I'm worried about the possibility that we finish the season by losing @Utah, @Stanford, and @Cal. Knowing how this team plays on the road and the inconsistent play we get from everyone but Scott, I think it IS a possibility. The committee is only going to take a certain # of teams out of the PAC12, and losing our last 4 regular season games and getting a crap draw in the PAC12 tournament could have us on edge.

 

[CVilleBuff]

I dunno, 9-9 in Conference play, with a 1-7 record against the Top 5 Conference opponents, would make me very nervous.

Considering all of the losses so far have been blowouts, I think at minimum, they need to at least play close games against Cal/Stanford

You'll feel MUCH more comfortable if you take a look at the Tennessee's, Missouri's and Providence's of the bubble. We are so far ahead right now in regards to overall resume. Very, very hard to see how we'd fall that far if we won another game.

 

[Buffnik]

You'll feel MUCH more comfortable if you take a look at the Tennessee's, Missouri's and Providence's of the bubble. We are so far ahead right now in regards to overall resume. Very, very hard to see how we'd fall that far if we won another game.

Yeah. People need to remember that once you get past the top 6 seeds, everyone's resume is questionable. This year is worse than most.

 

[wyobuff]

For those of you concerned about seeding in the P12 at this juncture, we are .5 game behind Stan & Cal, with those 2 teams playing the AZ schools this week. I bet that both of them will pick up at least one loss, and I think that ASU will split the series out there as well.

Another beneficial thing for us is that the tie breakers with those 2 wont matter (we are 0-2 vs az, or if ucla wins, 0-2 v them too) because we will only play them one time and whoever wins gets the tie breaker. It's more important from a tie breaker stand point to beat cal (as they have a W against az), but if we split, we will probably take 4th, behind whatever team we lose to out there and ahead of the one we beat.

Unless Asu decides to do something, in which case we dont have a tiebreaker against them. THey did catch the oregon schools (away) for their final 2 games, so it could be a rough trip to the evergreen state for them.

 

[Buffnik]

Oklahoma State is at TCU (up 34-22) with 2 minutes left in the half.

Elon is at Furman. They're up 32-22 at halftime.

Later, Kansas hosts Oklahoma. ESPN, 7pm.

 

[Buffnik]

I updated the OP based on Real Time RPI. Strength of Schedule is now #11 for the Buffs (projected to go to #7 by end of season).

Buffs moved up 2 spots in the RPI last week, from #27 to #25.

Underdogs in the last 3 games with a projection of dropping to RPI #34 with losses in all of them.

 

[Buffnik]

Elon and Okie Lite both rolled to their 18th wins tonight. :thumbsup:

 

[Buffnik]

Kansas beats Oklahoma (which came in a few RPI spots ahead of CU).

3-0 for our SOS tonight. Might be enough to move the Buffs up a bit.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Kansas beats Oklahoma (which came in a few RPI spots ahead of CU).

3-0 for our SOS tonight. Might be enough to move the Buffs up a bit.

Steady at 26 on Live RPI. Okie Lite and Elon's wins were over bottom of the barrel competition.

 

[Buffnik]

Steady at 26 on Live RPI. Okie Lite and Elon's wins were over bottom of the barrel competition.

Real Time RPI has us holding at 25, but our SOS went from 11 to 9. Gave us a little more breathing space on Louisville and helped close the gap a little on New Mexico.

 

[rolandftw]

You'll feel MUCH more comfortable if you take a look at the Tennessee's, Missouri's and Providence's of the bubble. We are so far ahead right now in regards to overall resume. Very, very hard to see how we'd fall that far if we won another game.

SEC is probably a 2 bid conference, unless some other team catches fire late or wins the Conference Tourney. I think it comes down to who that win is against. If it is USC or WSU in the Conference Tourney, that probably actually hurts CU a couple RPI spots. I think RPI is a very good predictor of the NCAA tourney, but it won't be the only thing the committee looks at.

Will feel better if CU can play competitive against Cal and Stanford. Do not want to be 1-8 against NCAA tourney teams in the conference with all 8 of the losses being blow outs.

 

[CVilleBuff]

SEC is probably a 2 bid conference, unless some other team catches fire late or wins the Conference Tourney. I think it comes down to who that win is against. If it is USC or WSU in the Conference Tourney, that probably actually hurts CU a couple RPI spots. I think RPI is a very good predictor of the NCAA tourney, but it won't be the only thing the committee looks at.

Will feel better if CU can play competitive against Cal and Stanford. Do not want to be 1-8 against NCAA tourney teams in the conference with all 8 of the losses being blow outs.

It's definitely not all about RPI but I'd maintain they put far more focus on that than they do dissecting our average margin of defeat against upper echelon Pac schools. I just don't know if they go that deep outside of maybe deciding on the last team or two. If we lose these next three and then beat a Wazzu or USC (you're right, it doesn't help in RPI), we're looking at 4 top 50 wins, and 8 to 10 top 100 along with zero sub 100 losses. I have an extremely hard time finding enough teams who are going to drastically improve their resumes in this time frame to take us from our current likely 9 or 10 seed and push us all the way out. Pac is pretty damn solid when it comes to 6 bids, IMO. I guess I just don't see a win in the Bay Area as absolutely imperative because I don't see us as needing one more quality win. A win in SLC or Vegas would do just fine. I guess the difference in our perspectives is you tend to think we may still need to prove something and get a quality win. I tend to think we need to just avoid ****ing up with a bad loss. I certainly hope the team doesn't have my mentality, though. And the bubble is so bad right now that the Vols and Missouri both would stand decent chances of getting in if selection was today. Just not a lot out there, ACC has no depth, SEC is embarrassingly thin, the lower conferences have very, very few cases for 2 bids. Gotta find teams from somewhere and a 21 win CU would seem awfully hard to leave out given the schedule strength.

 

[Buffnik]

It's definitely not all about RPI but I'd maintain they put far more focus on that than they do dissecting our average margin of defeat against upper echelon Pac schools. I just don't know if they go that deep outside of maybe deciding on the last team or two. If we lose these next three and then beat a Wazzu or USC (you're right, it doesn't help in RPI), we're looking at 4 top 50 wins, and 8 to 10 top 100 along with zero sub 100 losses. I have an extremely hard time finding enough teams who are going to drastically improve their resumes in this time frame to take us from our current likely 9 or 10 seed and push us all the way out. Pac is pretty damn solid when it comes to 6 bids, IMO. I guess I just don't see a win in the Bay Area as absolutely imperative because I don't see us as needing one more quality win. A win in SLC or Vegas would do just fine. I guess the difference in our perspectives is you tend to think we may still need to prove something and get a quality win. I tend to think we need to just avoid ****ing up with a bad loss. I certainly hope the team doesn't have my mentality, though. And the bubble is so bad right now that the Vols and Missouri both would stand decent chances of getting in if selection was today. Just not a lot out there, ACC has no depth, SEC is embarrassingly thin, the lower conferences have very, very few cases for 2 bids. Gotta find teams from somewhere and a 21 win CU would seem awfully hard to leave out given the schedule strength.

Yeah. It's so weak on the bubble this year that I'd bet that Indiana State gets in with its resume.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Yeah. It's so weak on the bubble this year that I'd bet that Indiana State gets in with its resume.

Seems the talk on them has cooled. I'd favor throwing another A10 sqaud like Richmond or Dayton in over Indiana St. Hell, I'd personally even put the Vols or Missouri in over them since at least they've each got a nice OOC win (Virginia and UCLA, respectively). Sycamores took the St. Mary's route of making little effort to challenge themselves OOC. "Big wins" are 61 Belmont and 100 Missouri State (and they've also lost to both, bumped into Belmont twice somehow). 2 sub 100 losses, including an asskicking laid on them by 198 Southern Illinois. Also, two of those 21 wins are non D1. MVC is just so damn bad. It's why I can't personally say I believe Wichita State deserves a 1 seed. Ultimately about "who did you play, who did you beat" and in the case of Wichita, the answer is 1 Big Dance lock (Saint Loius) and 2 Big Dance maybes (BYU and Tennessee). I love what that program is doing, but they've got some differences from last year and I ultimately don't think the depth or athleticism is there to make me believe they're truly better than Kanas, Florida, Arizona, or Duke. Wichita's depth looks a little misleading as they've been able to empty the bench so many times while playing RPI 200 quality teams. Wichita seems to not quite be taking on the "anyone, anywhere" philosphy that Gonzaga did. Shockers are a good team, but the sudden enormous upgrade in competition even by the Round of 32 may cost them after months of weak competition. I'd love to see them repeat last year, just have my doubts and think 2 or 3 seed is where they should be.

 

[wyobuff]

I guess I just don't see a win in the Bay Area as absolutely imperative because I don't see us as needing one more quality win. A win in SLC or Vegas would do just fine. I guess the difference in our perspectives is you tend to think we may still need to prove something and get a quality win. I tend to think we need to just avoid ****ing up with a bad loss.

Agree C'ville, but I will say this: A win in the bay area doesnt mean much for dancing, but it will mean a lot in terms of P12 Conf seeding.
At this point, like you mentioned, we need to avoid bad losses down the stretch, and we dont play any bad teams down the stretch (unless we get a WSU/USC in the p12 tourney 1st round)

I think we are going to be OK at this point.

 

[tante]

lose our next 3 and our RPI should be around 36 entering the tournament. Beat Cal and we should finish under 30.

 

[slider]

What's the statistical probability that we go 0-3?

 

[cubuffs85]

What's the statistical probability that we go 0-3?

Not sure, but it was ~20% before the UofA game, so maybe 30% now?

 

[Buffnik]

What's the statistical probability that we go 0-3?

After Saturday, I'm hoping to answer this as "0".

 

[cubuffs85]

After Saturday, I'm hoping to answer this as "0".

I think we all do, but to say I wouldn't be concerned about the possibility would be a lie.

 

[tante]

What's the statistical probability that we go 0-3?

each model has a different win percentage but

win at Utah 31%
win at Stanford 28%
win at Cal 36%


I believe it is like a 31.7% probability we lose all 3 (if I remember the math part correctly)

 

[cubuffs85]

each model has a different win percentage but

win at Utah 31%
win at Stanford 28%
win at Cal 36%


I believe it is like a 31.7% probability we lose all 3 (if I remember the math part correctly)

Sounds about right, given that they should all be somewhat winnable. It's not like were playing Duke at Cameron or Florida in Gainesville. Then you take into account that we should play better than we usually do one of those nights and the road teams will play worse than they typically do. I think the odds we go 1-2 are something like 55% with a 14% chance we go 2-1 or undefeated.