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2013-14 CU MBB SOS Watch (OOC & Pac-12 Opponents)

tante said:
each model has a different win percentage but

win at Utah 31%
win at Stanford 28%
win at Cal 36%


I believe it is like a 31.7% probability we lose all 3 (if I remember the math part correctly)
Click to expand...

Your math's right, and if my math is correct, we have about a 45% chance to go 1-2, 20% for 2-1, and 3% to go 3-0 (JG?)

Give me $100 on the 4-1 horse (2-1) and $5 on the 32-1 longshot (3-0), please.
 
scoob said:
Your math's right, and if my math is correct, we have about a 45% chance to go 1-2, 20% for 2-1, and 3% to go 3-0 (JG?)

Give me $100 on the 4-1 horse (2-1) and $5 on the 32-1 longshot (3-0), please.
Click to expand...


In your face 7th grade version of tante who said I wouldn't use this math later in life.
 
CVilleBuff said:
I guess the difference in our perspectives is you tend to think we may still need to prove something and get a quality win. I tend to think we need to just avoid ****ing up with a bad loss.
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Well, hope you are right. More importantly, I hope CU makes it a moot point in their next 3 games
 
Another big night for CU's SOS and RPI.

Updates to RealTimeRPI have the Buffs at #26 with the #13 SOS.

Here is what's around us:

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17 New Mexico 21-5 0.627736 0.5719 Mwest12-2
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18 Michigan St. 22-6 0.627618 0.5831 Big1011-4
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19 Cincinnati 24-4 0.627066 0.5544 Aac13-2
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20 Ohio St. 22-6 0.626914 0.5872 Big109-6
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21 San Diego St. 21-3 0.624892 0.5392 Mwest12-2
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22 North Carolina 20-7 0.618211 0.5883 Acc10-4
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23 Oklahoma 20-8 0.61728 0.5934 Big129-6
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24 Texas 20-7 0.615622 0.5789 Big129-5
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25 VA Commonwealth 20-7 0.615148 0.5647 Atl108-4
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26 Colorado 20-8 0.610113 0.5872 Pac129-6
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27 Louisville 23-4 0.608796 0.5370 Aac12-2
28 Gonzaga 22-6 0.605889 0.5399 Wcc13-3
29 Geo. Washington 20-7 0.603873 0.5514 Atl108-5
30 Connecticut 21-6 0.603463 0.5553 Aac9-5
31 Toledo 22-4 0.6021150 0.5045 Midam11-3
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32 Brigham Young 19-10 0.599231 0.5758 Wcc12-5
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33 Iowa 19-7 0.598941 0.5676 Big108-5
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34 Arizona St. 19-8 0.598847 0.5647 Pac128-6

Iowa @ Minnesota. We'd prefer Minnesota in this one. 5pm, BTN.
New Mexico hosts Utah State. UNM home loss would be nice. 7pm, CBSSN.
Georgia hosts Missouri. Game of the night for us. Go Dawgs! 7pm, ESPNU.
Air Force @ Wyoming. We need Wyoming to keep winning and stay in the Top 100. 7pm, ROOT.
SDSU hosts SJSU. A monumental upset here would be a beautiful thing. 9pm, CBSSN (tune in around 10:45 if the score is somehow close).
 
Minnesota beats Iowa. Georgia up 43-31 with 14 minutes left in the second half. New Mexico and Utah State tied with 9 left in the second half. Wyoming down 1 with eight minutes left.
 
FightCu1414 said:
Minnesota beats Iowa. Georgia up 43-31 with 14 minutes left in the second half. New Mexico and Utah State tied with 9 left in the second half. Wyoming down 1 with eight minutes left.
Click to expand...

Air Force wins at Wyo. Nance's ACL tear is going to cost us Wyoming being a top 100 win. It sucks.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Air Force wins at Wyo. Nance's ACL tear is going to cost us Wyoming being a top 100 win. It sucks.
Click to expand...

Yeah. 2nd straight year that their roster fell apart on them in the back half of the season.

At least that game strengthens our road win at AFA.

Also: New Mexico played a very good 2nd half to beat Utah State comfortably. I'm kind of enjoying that they're ranked and UCLA isn't.

The great news of the night: what Georgia is doing to Missouri just might be illegal. Winning by around 20 with under a minute left.
 
Buffnik said:
Yeah. 2nd straight year that their roster fell apart on them in the back half of the season.

At least that game strengthens our road win at AFA.

Also: New Mexico played a very good 2nd half to beat Utah State comfortably. I'm kind of enjoying that they're ranked and UCLA isn't.

The great news of the night: what Georgia is doing to Missouri just might be illegal. Winning by around 20 with under a minute left.
Click to expand...

Please let this finally help Missouri be escorted out of the field. Unreal Lunardi had them still holding a bye before this one.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Air Force wins at Wyo. Nance's ACL tear is going to cost us Wyoming being a top 100 win. It sucks.
Click to expand...

Not only Nance, but a frosh was suspended for the season (RS, so not a huge deal) and one kid got dismissed indefinitely (the transfer from Alabama). They have had ~45-50 min drop out of their roster in 2 weeks
 
Wednesday, 2/25, games we care about:

UConn at USF. Upset would be nice. 5pm, CBSSN.
North Carolina at NC State. Go Wolfpack! 6pm, ESPN3.
Toledo at N Illinois. Toledo is scaring me as a team that's going to lose in the MAC tourney and still get in. They need to drop.
Cal at Arizona. Played Zona twice (RPI bonus) and need Cal to lose for Pac-12 standings. 7pm, ESPN2.
Baylor at Texas. Big one for us. Texas dropping helps our rank and Baylor winning helps our SOS. 7pm, ESPNU.
Stanford at ASU. An ASU win would probably help RPI while dropping Furd to us in the standings. But it would also bring ASU up and they'll own any tiebreakers with their win over UA. I'm not sure on this one. Probably better for the Pac-12 if Furd wins, then loses to Zona. 9pm, ESPNU.
CSU at UNLV. Rammies could help us here. 9pm, CBSSN.
 
Buffnik said:
Wednesday, 2/25, games we care about:

UConn at USF. Upset would be nice. 5pm, CBSSN.
North Carolina at NC State. Go Wolfpack! 6pm, ESPN3.
Toledo at N Illinois. Toledo is scaring me as a team that's going to lose in the MAC tourney and still get in. They need to drop.
Cal at Arizona. Played Zona twice (RPI bonus) and need Cal to lose for Pac-12 standings. 7pm, ESPN2.
Baylor at Texas. Big one for us. Texas dropping helps our rank and Baylor winning helps our SOS. 7pm, ESPNU.
Stanford at ASU. An ASU win would probably help RPI while dropping Furd to us in the standings. But it would also bring ASU up and they'll own any tiebreakers with their win over UA. I'm not sure on this one. Probably better for the Pac-12 if Furd wins, then loses to Zona. 9pm, ESPNU.
CSU at UNLV. Rammies could help us here. 9pm, CBSSN.
Click to expand...

It has officially reached the point in the season (given our position) where I set aside the Baylor and CSU hate for the good of our Buffs.

On a side note, Dave Rice was already taking heat from UNLV fans stuck in 1991 (which is all of them) when he lost to 11 seed CU in the Dance (his first season). UNLV went out and did the same thing last year getting "upset" by 12 seed Cal. Now this year they aren't even sniffing the Dance (RPI is 104 and they've done absolutely nothing all year except for a win @ New Mexico). Dude has to be taking some major heat. He'll get another year for sure (unless UNLV is even crazier than I think), but I knew the pressure was on after seeing "fire Dave Rice" posts after losing to CU two years ago. He'll end up with 20+ wins this season, but it's clear UNLV fans have some damn high expectations and now that he's failed to sniff the Dance this year he's given them ammo to claim they're in an inevitable decline as long as he remains coach.
 
I'm voting for a stanford win over ASU - I think that will do us more help.
Like you mentioned, ASU will have the tie breaker over us, so any loss on them is a good one. We can be in the drivers seat (even from a lower p12 standing) with stan + cal by beating them. The tie breakers wont matter over those 2 in that case, which could put us ~3-4th in conf
 
CVilleBuff said:
I'm feeling better about Cal, too. I've watched their last few games and have been completely unimpressed. It might just be a funk, but they are playing "meh" basketball lately.
Click to expand...

For a while now, it's been the Cobbs show. Whether Cal wins or loses seems to depend on whether he's able to put the team on his back and will it to victory. I think the bad with that is that it's put the team in a rut where other players tend to watch him do his thing rather than being aggressive themselves (or play too selfishly when they do get the ball).
 
Stanford getting pounded, down 18 w 6 to go.

I thought there was going to be a bit of separation between spots 3-6 but no. It's a big ass mess again. Everyone sitting at 9-6.

Not all bad for us though as we are in the drivers seat w cal and Stanford. An asu loss would help a lot
 
UCSB falls @ UC Irvine. What a shame. Not only does it prevent UCSB getting back into the top 100, but likely costs them the regular season Big West title and now they're likely the 2 seed in that tournament.
 
CVilleBuff said:
UCSB falls @ UC Irvine. What a shame. Not only does it prevent UCSB getting back into the top 100, but likely costs them the regular season Big West title and now they're likely the 2 seed in that tournament.
Click to expand...

Had it within 4 with a minute left and let UCI go on a 6-0 run. Would have been a very nice road win for them.
 
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