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Class ranks by average # of P5 offers (from 2012 on)

manhattanbuff said:
No. This is only early signing. Plus, our recruit average ranking is third lowest in P12. ASU has a recruiting scandal and Wazzu is in limbo.
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It’s all relative. It’s absolutely an uptick in recruiting relative to last year and the MM years. It’s on par with Tucker class… No top end blue chips, but no real bottom end Jayle Stacks, Lictenhaun, etc types.

You’re also right that relative to our P12 peers, it’s not very good. Tuckers class was 9th in the Pac 12 in avg recruit rating, FWIW.

We were all excited about the 4* guys Tucker pulled, but none of them panned out and it’s really Rice, Gonzo and MLC to this point. Lewis if you want to throw him in there. Everyone else is JAGy or hasn’t developed enough yet.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
It’s all relative. It’s absolutely an uptick in recruiting relative to last year and the MM years. It’s on par with Tucker class… No top end blue chips, but no real bottom end Jayle Stacks, Lictenhaun, etc types.

You’re also right that relative to our P12 peers, it’s not very good. Tuckers class was 9th in the Pac 12 in avg recruit rating, FWIW.

We were all excited about the 4* guys Tucker pulled, but none of them panned out and it’s really Rice, Gonzo and MLC to this point. Lewis if you want to throw him in there. Everyone else is JAGy or hasn’t developed enough yet.
Click to expand...
We also have a shyt staff, so we are unsure about their developmental abilities. And the averages provided just a few messages above yours tell a different story about the comparison to 2020.

KCM said:
As of this afternoon.


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
Click to expand...
 
This is a really good class for CU vs. our avg. The problem with that statement is that our avg is the basement, and our standard is 5-7, and our high water mark during the last 15 hrs is avg for an avg team at best.

Also, that high water mark at least took chances on large human beings. I hope we are about to institute some revolutionary scheme that requires almost no linemen.
 
Assuming Hardge is this evenings news… here are the early numbers (after 10 2023 commits)


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
2023 - 3.9 - I. Hardge, E. Schultz (8)

Note: I need to revise the 2022 number based on some late additions (it should come down a little). Also, it’s really early, I expect some of the current commits to pick up more offers (like C. Madden last year).
 
I try to update this evening. I obviously think P5 offers are critical, but if I were making an exceptions to the rule I don’t mind the bets on McDuffie (16 year old, Weight: 303, Wingspan: 82.75 who went to one camp), Greaves (4.43 40 - 24 offers total) and Perez (6’8” 340 who is still learning the position after a switch from TE).
 
KCM said:
I try to update this evening. I obviously think P5 offers are critical, but if I were making an exceptions to the rule I don’t mind the bets on McDuffie (16 year old, Weight: 303, Wingspan: 82.75 who went to one camp), Greaves (4.43 40 - 24 offers total) and Perez (6’8” 340 who is still learning the position after a switch from TE).
Click to expand...
Agreed- Beginning to wonder if our new peak is developing kids and getting them to transfer to big schools then selling that to future recruits. Almost funny to see people accept defeat after the NIL thing... lol as if we were competing before it and this was our death blow
 
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After 15 commits


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
2023 - 3.86 - I. Hardge, Bertrand, E. Schultz (8)
 
KCM said:
After 15 commits


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
2023 - 3.86 - I. Hardge, Bertrand, E. Schultz (8)
Click to expand...
Thanks for keeping this honest and putting in the work to confirm the facts, KCM.

To add to this, to be one of the top 64 teams in the country in recruiting by average composite ranking vs. "points" (which is so stupid, but I digress), you need to be roughly 87 or higher. CU is currently 85.43.

2022: 85.64
2021: 83.92
2020: 85.63
2019: 84.91
2018: 84.49

Basically, for a long time now, we haven't been recruiting the talent to be a bowl team.
 
After 19 commits (and pre-hiring a new coach... hopefully a new coach improves this). Funny that recruiting has improved without a coach.


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
2023 - 4.05 - I. Hardge, J. Shaw (9), V. Johnson (8), E. Schultz (8)
 
KCM said:
After 19 commits (and pre-hiring a new coach... hopefully a new coach improves this). Funny that recruiting has improved without a coach.


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
2023 - 4.05 - I. Hardge, J. Shaw (9), V. Johnson (8), E. Schultz (8)
Click to expand...
Crazy that the 2020 class has one guy left from the list of P5 offers. woof.
 
After Coach Prime’s first few commits….

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
2023 - 5.33 - D. Edwards, A. Waseem, I. Hardge, J. Shaw (9), V. Johnson (8)
 
These updates are great @KCM

I often wonder what the average in 2017 would look like if you removed all of Jake Moretti’s offers, since pretty much everyone pulled out due to injury except CU.
 
Creebuzz said:
These updates are great @KCM

I often wonder what the average in 2017 would look like if you removed all of Jake Moretti’s offers, since pretty much everyone pulled out due to injury except CU.
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I cap the number of offers used in this calculation at 10 so Moretti’s or Mangham’s crazy offer lists don’t mess with the numbers. If you have 10 or more P5 offers typically a quality prospect.

For example, if I did this analysis for a team like Alabama the average would likely be between 8.0 - 9.5 (almost all of their commitments have 10+ offers).
 
It’s challenging to keep up, but the three star commits we get now typically have many more offers than the three star commits we used to get…

A reminder on the methodology: I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
2023 - 5.94 - D. Edwards, A. Waseem, I. Hardge, J. Page, J. Shaw (9), S. Coats (9), V. Johnson (8)
 
This is one of my favorite threads on AllBuffs. Huge thanks to @KCM for doing this. I plotted your data and you gotta love the trend so far. 1671596005507.png
Worth mentioning that every notable commit listed from 2020 is no longer on the team, so take that spike with a grain of salt.

FWIW @KCM, if you took the median P5 offers instead of the average, you might not need to artificially cap offers at 10 since the median is less impacted by skew from outliers. Just throwing that out there in case it saves you any time, but appreciate this data regardless!
 
FM-Buff said:
Current 247 Rankings for CU:
12 Commits
0 5-Star
1 4-Star
10 3-Star
86.51 Avg Player rating
10th in PAC 12 Rank
65 Overall Rank

Should be fun seeing the difference from today to signing day.
Click to expand...
Updated through today:
16 Commits
0 5-Star
2 4-Star
13 3-Star
86.90 Avg Player rating
9th in PAC 12 Rank (This is really fluid. They were at 7 a few hours ago.)
53 Overall Rank (This is really fluid. They were at 47 a few hours ago.)
 
Should we end this thread? As long as Coach Prime is the coach at CU, we don’t really have to worry about this anymore… in six days on the job he has landed ten guys with 8 or more P5 offers. The 6.66 number below would be significantly higher if he didn’t have to take depth pieces (Wilty, Beebe, Zilinskas, Alston) to rebuild a 1-11 team with limited talent. IMO, this is definitely the best class since 2008 and it will continue to improve…

A reminder on the methodology: I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
2023 - 6.66 - T. Hunter, Shedeur Sanders, D. Edwards, A. Waseem, I. Hardge, J. Page, S. Coats (9), T. McCoy (9), V. Johnson (8), I. Jatta (8)
 
Last edited:
KCM said:
Should we end this thread? As long as Coach Prime is the coach at CU, we don’t really have to worry about this anymore… in six days on the job he has landed ten guys with 8 or more P5 offers. The 6.66 number below would be significantly higher if he didn’t have to take depth pieces (Wilty, Beebe, Zilinskas, Alston) to rebuild a 1-11 team with limited talent. IMO, this is definitely the best class since 2008 and it will continue to improve…

A reminder on the methodology: I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
2023 - 6.66 - T. Hunter, Shedeur Sanders, D. Edwards, A. Waseem, I. Hardge, J. Page, J. Shaw (9), S. Coats (9), T. McCoy (9), V. Johnson (8)
Click to expand...
I believe you’re missing Adam Hopkins as well, I’m counting 17 P5 offers
 
KCM said:
Should we end this thread? As long as Coach Prime is the coach at CU, we don’t really have to worry about this anymore… in six days on the job he has landed ten guys with 8 or more P5 offers. The 6.66 number below would be significantly higher if he didn’t have to take depth pieces (Wilty, Beebe, Zilinskas, Alston) to rebuild a 1-11 team with limited talent. IMO, this is definitely the best class since 2008 and it will continue to improve…

A reminder on the methodology: I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
2023 - 6.66 - T. Hunter, Shedeur Sanders, D. Edwards, A. Waseem, I. Hardge, J. Page, S. Coats (9), T. McCoy (9), V. Johnson (8), I. Jatta (8)
Click to expand...
Thread just got good and you want to end it? No!
 
Darth Snow said:
Let's end the thread when the average is above 9.5
Click to expand...
Point Agree GIF by Ford
 
Buffnik said:
All of a sudden, I'm getting intrigued when we offer someone and we don't have P5 competition. How do our coaches know him? What do they see on film? Did we find a unicorn?
Click to expand...
Here’s where I’m at. I find it peculiar sometimes. Not judging, just curious.
 
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