Medford M.
Well-Known Member
You're an idiot. Stop going with what you "algorithm" says.
We've played the best teams on our schedule already.
Fortunately...games aren't played on spreadsheets.
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Game Thread: KSU @ CU—October 12 @ 8:15 PM ESPN
- Thread starter FM-Buff
- Start date
We've played the best teams on our schedule already.
Fortunately...games aren't played on spreadsheets.
Medford M.
Well-Known Member
Colorado is winning at LEAST two games without Hunter.
Your model is **** and doesn't account for enough.
Medford M.
Well-Known Member
And every team in the country will have **** series on offense and defense.
Medford M.
Well-Known Member
What's your model predict for Bama-Vandy or Bama-South Carolina?
241Volcanos
Well-Known Member
Our talent is injured.
I promise you that his model didn’t say 100% in either game. Now let’s find out if you understand math
1-5 the rest of the way
Coaching. They were 100% sure ksu would run the ball on that last drive.
opps.
Took me 36 hours to overcome the fury I felt after that game. Bottom line, the coaches lost that game. Two weeks to scout and practice and we were unprepared, unmotivated, and underwhelming.
Key takeaways after rewatching and breaking down "film". In no particular order:
- I have some real concerns about favoritism by coaches across position groups. That or these coaches are struggling to see what they have in their groups. See the * below for where this is occurring.
- Zilinkas still continues to be very poor. He held 70% of the plays. The officials just weren't calling holds either way.
- What happened to the dudes who were running with the 1s in fall camp? How do you drop off so bad. How are Myers, Benson, Johnson so out of the mix?*
- How do Sheppard or Timmons get PT ahead of Miller? Sheppard does some nice things, but Miller is as good or better. We could've saved some money and just given Miller the position in the offseason. He proved himself last season and is doing it again this year. We would've been just fine.*
- Shilo has phoned it in for the season. And no, this isn't just this game. He was mediocre in the first three games and was absolutely horrific in Saturday's game. This is being hammered all over the place, so no sense in overkill. But just consider this - The film showed his coverage breakdowns might actually have been worse than his run support breakdowns. Fvcking unbelievable.*
- Jordan Seaton runs the OLine. He is a true freshman owning his matchup every play, getting the unit in the correct calls and chewing azz when needed.
- How the FVCK do you go into Cover 1 as much as we did down the stretch with our best m2m DB out and Shilo playing like an idiot. I'm still punching air. Holy fvck.
- Enough is enough with the Dallen Hayden experiment. How do the coaches not see the difference between him and Welch or Augustave. I swear to god this reeks of "We paid him, so we have to play him."*
- I knew that random dude that appears in the WOM videos and calls himself Shedeur's QB was sh!t from day 1. I'm even more convinced now seeing that Shedeur has fvck all for pocket presence and obviously has never been put through an escape or box drill in his life. That guy just stands there in his chains and crooked hat looking important and doing d!ck. GTFOH guy.
- All that said, we looked like inflamed chimp azz all night and still should've won. That's says something. Beat UA and all is forgotten.
Key takeaways after rewatching and breaking down "film". In no particular order:
- I have some real concerns about favoritism by coaches across position groups. That or these coaches are struggling to see what they have in their groups. See the * below for where this is occurring.
- Zilinkas still continues to be very poor. He held 70% of the plays. The officials just weren't calling holds either way.
- What happened to the dudes who were running with the 1s in fall camp? How do you drop off so bad. How are Myers, Benson, Johnson so out of the mix?*
- How do Sheppard or Timmons get PT ahead of Miller? Sheppard does some nice things, but Miller is as good or better. We could've saved some money and just given Miller the position in the offseason. He proved himself last season and is doing it again this year. We would've been just fine.*
- Shilo has phoned it in for the season. And no, this isn't just this game. He was mediocre in the first three games and was absolutely horrific in Saturday's game. This is being hammered all over the place, so no sense in overkill. But just consider this - The film showed his coverage breakdowns might actually have been worse than his run support breakdowns. Fvcking unbelievable.*
- Jordan Seaton runs the OLine. He is a true freshman owning his matchup every play, getting the unit in the correct calls and chewing azz when needed.
- How the FVCK do you go into Cover 1 as much as we did down the stretch with our best m2m DB out and Shilo playing like an idiot. I'm still punching air. Holy fvck.
- Enough is enough with the Dallen Hayden experiment. How do the coaches not see the difference between him and Welch or Augustave. I swear to god this reeks of "We paid him, so we have to play him."*
- I knew that random dude that appears in the WOM videos and calls himself Shedeur's QB was sh!t from day 1. I'm even more convinced now seeing that Shedeur has fvck all for pocket presence and obviously has never been put through an escape or box drill in his life. That guy just stands there in his chains and crooked hat looking important and doing d!ck. GTFOH guy.
- All that said, we looked like inflamed chimp azz all night and still should've won. That's says something. Beat UA and all is forgotten.
TLDR: he doesn’t.
FLounder
Think Positive and life will be Positive.
Even people that have a basic understanding of math truly don’t understand proper game theory and statistics.
That being said my model, my nuts, tell me we go 9-3 and slip into the title game.
4-2
All that matters is getting to 5-2
The Nebraska game, IMO, was more of a physical beating that we weren't ready for but this one felt like a pure coaching mismatch pretty much all the way around, but especially their offense outcoaching Livingston. This is just one example and granted, I don't know the down and distance here or all specific responsibilities, but this we essentially have a 6 man box when they have 6 blockers.
As soon as the WR goes in motion, Cam drops back to more of a traditional Safety depth, and even though the ball is snapped well before the motion has even crossed the QB/Center, NHG basically runs himself out of the box to the offense's right side, leaving 5 defenders for 6 blockers. The Guard pulls, and as the tweet suggests, BJ Green does a phenomenal job to block him up, but then the TE leads the RB right up the hole, takes out Bentley and there isn't anybody left to make the tackle until NHG realizes he's way out of position and he and Shilo are able to come back and make the play 8-9 yards down field.
To me, this was just poor coaching and scheme. CU's OL isn't good enough to consistently win with even numbers in the box, but KSU's definitely is and we made it even easier by giving them +1 in the box.
As soon as the WR goes in motion, Cam drops back to more of a traditional Safety depth, and even though the ball is snapped well before the motion has even crossed the QB/Center, NHG basically runs himself out of the box to the offense's right side, leaving 5 defenders for 6 blockers. The Guard pulls, and as the tweet suggests, BJ Green does a phenomenal job to block him up, but then the TE leads the RB right up the hole, takes out Bentley and there isn't anybody left to make the tackle until NHG realizes he's way out of position and he and Shilo are able to come back and make the play 8-9 yards down field.
To me, this was just poor coaching and scheme. CU's OL isn't good enough to consistently win with even numbers in the box, but KSU's definitely is and we made it even easier by giving them +1 in the box.
I’d argue we are probably one team that can use the pass to set up the run.
Like you said, we moved at will, which would force them out of the box, then we could probably get some run going. But by the time we abandoned the run for pass only, it was too late to try and go back to the pass. Also, Agustave was the back, not Hayden for that particular night.
I generally agree with most of your points. A few things from my perspective...
1. They literally don't have another Center. Yakiri Walker has seemingly left the team and was shown potentially bad mouthing them on social after the game
2. This whole offseason objective of "Don't Touch 2" and rebuilding the OL has failed. Only two of the current five starting OL the past two games were not on this team last year, Jordan Seaton and Phillip Houston, and Houston was supposed to be a developmental addition who needed to put on about 30-40 lbs before being ready. Technically Tyler Brown was on the team, but he obviously didn't play so I guess that's 3 new additions, but he's JAG at the P4 level. They went out and presumably spent decent NIL money on three proven starters in Kahlil Benson, Justin Mayers and Tyler Johnson and none are currently seeing the field. Speculation that Tyler Johnson is essentially off the team at this point and I have no idea what is going on with Mayers. He didn't seem to be the problem early on, but somehow got in Phil's dog house and can't see the field over Kareem Harden. Benson is another baffling situation. Supposedly got hurt and didn't travel to Orlando for the UCF game. Ok, but he had essentially 2.5 weeks to heal up and be ready for this game and he still couldn't get the start. Was Benson even dressed on Saturday?
3. I said the same thing recently about Sheppard. I think he is a pretty good player who is likely going to get drafted, but was there a need for him when we had Miller? His $$ should have been spent on a competent TE, another OL or DL, IMO, but then again, I'm glad we have him now since we have lost WR1, WR2, WR5 and WR6 to injury.
4. Unpopular opinion here, but I'm willing to give Shilo a little grace in being rusty after missing 4 weeks. It doesn't excuse the coaching decision to keep him out there the whole game, but I think he will be better this weekend.
5. Jordan Seaton is going to be the leader of this team next year and will eventually be a top 10 pick. The staff needs to do everything in their power to make sure they get this OL right next year.
6. I already said previously that Livingston was outcoached. I know they think they have a Secondary that can play press man all game, but they don't, especially when Travis is out. Hodge is a good player, but he's not that guy. He's not fast enough to keep up with good receivers on go balls and teams are going to pick on him going forward.
One glaring area where they outplayed us, and yet we held a 4 point lead with 2 minutes left in the game, needing one defensive stop to beat the #16 team in the country.
one thing we really aren't talking about much is that our offense is not that good despite having Shedeur.
I love Shedeur, but if we keep the key pieces we'll be an all-around better offense without him next year.
GoBuffs08
Well-Known Member
With Shedeur and all the passing success it should be so much easier for this team to run the ball. The fact that they can't or against KState dont even try is just infuriating.
FLounder
Think Positive and life will be Positive.
The defense will be far better without shilo too.
Also prime becomes a better coach when he has no children on the team.
I mean, maybe? I'm not sure how you reconcile losing the best QB (or top 2-3 QB) in the sport and the offense being better, unless you think a True Freshman or transfer is going to be a similarly effective passer but the running game is going to take a massive leap forward.
CU fans are funny. Shedeur is the best QB in the history of this program and will likely be the highest draft pick in the history of CU football, yet there's almost a mindset that we'll be better off without him. Some of you need to gain some perspective here.
Travis makes all big plays! His hands are like nobody else’s.
Bliff Cranch
Well-Known Member
Shedeur is the most talented QB in CU history. That said he has flaws and is not well coached. Hell, I’m not convinced he’s coachable at this or the next level. He’ll be drafted very high because someone will see potential. I see an NFL career like Cam Newton in him.
All that said, this team should be MUCH better than it is with him. That says a lot about the massive opportunity that’s being wasted this season.
All that said, this team should be MUCH better than it is with him. That says a lot about the massive opportunity that’s being wasted this season.
Don't get me wrong, SS2 will go up on the ring of fame at some point. He's an amazing player. That said, the offense is 100% built to get him his throws. I was initially in the camp that thought this couldn't be true, but it is. It's obvious. The run plays that are called are not even well concepted and really serve no purpose. We run no misdirection, there is no creativity, the blocking combos are rudimentary, and the players don't even look like they're going full speed.
Next year we need a new OC and a young quarterback (who hopefully is also a bit of a running threat) who will run what is called in a balanced scheme.
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And the argument that they are bending to the needs of the player is dumb. They are running an offense that gives them the best chance to compete and win. Replace Shedeur with a mediocre QB and try to make this a more balanced team and they are sitting at 1-5 right now. Like it or not, that's the reality. They are pass heavy because that's where the talent is on this offense, not because of "daddy ball".
SeanMSan
Well-Known Member
The way I broke mine back in March, that’s exactly what I thought when they replayed it. Instantaneous empathy poured out of me way too late in the day.
Now, I agree with everything above, but that last line is quality work. Well done.
How do you reconcile the best QB (or top 2-3 QB) and think 6-6 is an acceptable team outcome? There are more than a few posters here who apparently can.