Besides Manhattan and his model, who is saying 6-6 is acceptable? I think far more posters here would consider 6-6 as somewhat of a failure.
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Game Thread: KSU @ CU—October 12 @ 8:15 PM ESPN
- Thread starter FM-Buff
- Start date
Based off this, you could consider 6-6 not meeting expectations, or even a failure
Despite all our issues, we're good enough to win the next six games. At least 4-2 should be the minimum expectation.
Well, you, in post 1291 above for starters....
This team was woefully outcoached by KSU and it wasn't even close. The rest of the season can go in any direction and I am still more confused than the beginning of the season.
66BUFF
FTW
I said "fine, but underwhelming" as in, it's great to make a bowl game for the first time in 8 years (non-COVID year), but underwhelming considering the expectations and talent we currently have.
Regardless, CU has lost to a 5-1 Nebraska team on the road and the 16th ranked 5-1 KSU team by 3 after losing Travis Hunter in the first quarter. But naturally, some of you jump to the conclusion that it's looking like a 6-6 season.
I would go so far as to say NDSU, kNU and KjSU's staff outcoached CU. I would have to credit bailer as well as that is a pretty ****ty team that hung with CU till the very end in Boulder.
The truly sad thing is KjSU and NDSU are pretty much the same style of ball and CU still got outcoached the second time around 6 weeks later.
Fair. 6-6 is a coaching failure. I would say the same about 7-5, frankly. The reason I am a little concerned is I see not much in the way of adjustment in the Offensive game plan, except for the UCF game, where the changes worked brilliantly, only to be abandoned after a bye week.
While the two losses have been to good teams, let's not forget squeaking by a crummy bailer team in OT and letting a DII school hang around to throw a hail Mary, both in Boulder. And CSewe was a gimme. So the one game where CU looked like the team their talent level dictates was UCF. I think we all were thinking the kinks were worked out, and the Buffs were ready to roll. I think we may have been premature in that assessment. Saturday night was a mess. It speaks to the remarkable talent level on the roster they were still in the game, but it also screams poor coaching.
Sometimes you need that bye week. It takes a little extra time to discard the things that were working.
It took coach Gumbo a while to unlearn the OL....
for all you optimists out there, we've got another bye week coming!
I think we end at 7 or 8. But after starting 4-1 and with the progress they made by the end of game 5, it’s definitely a failure in my mind if we end at 6-6. I would honestly say 7-5 is probably a failure to to me as well.
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The Sanders can plan another vacation to take a break from the hits.
Losing by 3 to a top 20 team in the last minute was a mess? C'mon, CU pretty much hit the Vegas line on target. The numbers do not back this being a mess...
The numbers show two teams that were roughly comparable in quality where 1 team made a few more plays than the other. Both teams were comparable in terms of efficiency & explosiveness, CU actually won the points/opportunity, field position was roughly the same, avg expected points advantage CU.
All this & we were down Hunter & Horn early on & later Timmons/Miller.
I couldn't care less about Vegas. I saw a team that called, or audibled into, pass plays 46/59 plays or about 78% of the time. They were one-dimensional and that one fact is what got them beat. For all SS2's talent, which is monumental in my book, when you only throw, you make it easy for the other team to defend. Even the remotest hint of a run game and CU wins. So, yeah, that is a mess. A coaching/game planning mess for the most part, but a mess. CU was by far the more talented team, KjSU was more physical, better coached and CU could not muster a defensive stop in most critical situations. KjSU converted critical 3rd and longs. I could go on, but won't. With all due respect, I have no idea what that crap in your graph is, nor do I care.
Example #394 why preseason rankings are crap. You know much more about the strength of schedule later in the season when you see how good teams really are.
So essentially you're ignoring the actual analytics here. CU didn't need a run game to win, CU needed a stop by the defense or a TD on the drive where SS2 threw a pick close to the red zone. Yeah it would be good to have a run game but that didn't have much impact in the loss. Most of the sacks weren't b/c of a run game or bad OL blocking, it was SS2 rolling into the sack or not getting rid of the damn ball.
CU went toe-to-toe with a top 15 team w/o 4 of its best players for much of the game, Hunter being 2 of the 4. KSU is 24-9 the last 2.5 seasons, they're a damn good program & a damn tough team for a reason.
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JMBuffs
Well-Known Member
Caleb Williams did it just last year
You got me there.
KjSU was a top 15 weeks 3 and 4 of this season, and below after that. They went into the CU game at 17/18 IIRC. So, let's at least be accurate about that if you are going to throw a wall of stats at me.
KjSU really could not cover CU 4-7 WR's. They got pressure on SS2 because they could just pass rush. A semblance of a run game would have kept them on their heels and CU probably would have scored even more without SS2 having to face a DL with no run responsibility at all. There aren't many teams that can win by being one dimensional.
CU has way more talent. Just going toe to toe with KjSU is a pretty low bar for this CU team, even with 12 on the sideline for a half. If the game plan from UCF were employed, I think CU would have won easily. KjSU is a solid team, but I do not think they are that good, BYU throttled them and their two best wins are against a flailing Okie St. and AZ, neither of which are what their pre-season rankings forecasted.
CU has, IMO the best WR and DB rooms in the conference and the best QB to boot. The RB room is above average for the B12, but woefully underutilized. The LB and DL are at least average in the conference. The real achilles heel is the OL, but for reasons unknown to me, the staff chooses a game plan that makes it as hard as possible for the OL to succeed. The schemes used at UCF showed how that weak point could be neutralized, but it requires the team to run the ball.
So, playing schoolyard 7 on 7 is what lost the game. Ultimately, that is on the coaches. And it was a mess. CU's superior talent kept them in the game, the poor game plan lost it.
I don't care about AP rankings, I care about analytics that remove the noise and actually rank teams without biases. KSU is a much better team than UCF with a much better coaching staff than UCF.
You're continuing to ignore the actual game data. 4.86 points/opportunity is very good, that was CU's offense on Saturday.
I agree the talent and over-all coaching is good enough to get CU to 8 wins. The weakness of the team is QB play, just as it is the strength. SS needs to reign things in and yield to the play Shurmur has called. The O has the JImmies and the Joe's, but is clearly missing the X's and the O's and playing the best players at each position. Over-all, O Miller is better than Shepherd... he blocks, he is more athlettic and he does not drop or fail to try to catch key passes. So back to SS, when is he going to learn how to hand the ball off and fake like he didn't? When will he go with called runs and be happy to run them out of the pistol? Shurmur and Shedeur are not committed to the need to have an established and good running game and this needs to change. If it does, the ceiling is a Big 10 championship with a seven or eight win floor. SS's play and stats and draft status would improve if he becomes more coachable, but if there is more of the same, checking out of running plays and not improving where he needs to improve, both the team and SS's draft status could tank.
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Why do people act as if top drafted QB's dont have flaws that they have to work on.
Boulder
Well-Known Member
The game was close enough where a penalty call could have swayed the outcome. To counteract some of the doom the Buffs lost to a top 20 team by less than a touchdown, while missing their top defensive and offensive player plus sustaining injuries to many of their top receivers. It was a coin flip game and sometimes you end up in the wrong side of them. I am not happy the team picked up a L but it is not a horrible loss like some are making it out to be.
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Yeah, a Big10 Championship would be EPIC!
