I love systems.
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NDSU Football only RunRunRun, death by 1000 cuts no Pass
- Thread starter gobison123
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Passerby
South Dakota's bitch
Sagarin has NDSU at +7.65. We have NDSU -4. Odds makers at MGM (MIDAS) NDSU +9.5. We will take the 9.5.
Co is the favorite Sagarin has Co at 48 and NDSU 69. If NDSU wins it’s an upset to-be-sure. That’s what makes this such a big game. There is ample reason to believe The BISON will win this one. It’s a big game all-right. Maybe not as big as Kansas State or Iowa but bigger than the AZ game.
Co is the favorite Sagarin has Co at 48 and NDSU 69. If NDSU wins it’s an upset to-be-sure. That’s what makes this such a big game. There is ample reason to believe The BISON will win this one. It’s a big game all-right. Maybe not as big as Kansas State or Iowa but bigger than the AZ game.
Passerby
South Dakota's bitch
Take a look at the production of the players being replaced by the production of the players coming in. You may have to use league averages as a guide if incoming statistics are unknown. It’s easiest with offensive ball handlers but using this approach a reasonable estimate of incoming player impact on the overall team profile can be made.
say a defensive player is coming in net gain in tackles is 10. A yard equivalency must be established for the team by dividing number of tackles by total yds allowed. This factor is then applied to the 10 tackle difference providing you with the incoming players impact on teams total yards allowed.
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Damn. Homer system has over an 11 point gap.
I think we all have a lot of respect for the NDSU program and what it has achieved. There is an established system and culture which works and marches on through coaching changes. And teams that know how to win and expect to find a way are also the most dangerous to upset you because they won't beat themselves or quit if they get down. Based on personnel, CU should win by multiple scores but NDSU is not going to roll over and let that happen - Buffs are going to need to be focused, execute basics, make the plays that are available, and not allow penalties, turnovers or assignment breakdowns to leave the door open.
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So if you knew a damn thing you'd know the production coming in tends to far exceed the production going out.
But you're right Hayes, Green, Okunlola, Nwanwko, Hodge, McKinney, Wester, Sheppard, Mayers, Benson, etc didn't do anything at their last school, just rode the bench.
I bet you don't know a single one of those non-WR guys.
You know the team isn’t reading this, right? It’s OK for you to be more of a fan and less diplomatic.
P.S. They suck and we will crush them!
So third quarter when CU pulls away and wins
41-20. Gotcha
Sneak '****ty' preview?
Who is 'we'?
tHE sYsTEm
Passerby
South Dakota's bitch
Are you expecting much of an improvement over the 69 yards rushing and 295 yds passing. How about defense? How much of an improvement on the 454 yds allowed/game? These are the kind of numbers NDSU can feast on.
Oh are we trotting out the same guys now? Or did the front 7 change over? Didn't bring in Mayers/Benson/Seaton/Johnson + Brown who would have been a starter last year had he been eligible?
You dodged any substance in your response, because you have no knowledge base. Hayes/Green/Buell/Nwanwko are among the highest rated returning players in the Big 12. Hodge was a top 10 CB last year. McKinney started for a good OSU team & got good grades.
How many times are you going to show your ass before you learn to educate yourself before yapping?
No slappy, we expect them to be exactly the same. ****, this guy is Cliff Claven.
More evidence that you are completely clueless.
Passerby
South Dakota's bitch
What do you expect? How many yards rushing do you think NDSU can get? Passing? I believe they get their 400 yds. It’s doubtful Co can get 550, which they need.
Game plan will come into play if you want to talk individual players. NDSU is kind of a college football brain trust. Ask Desmond King if a great game plan can neutralize a Big 10 All American?
Again, coaching. But hey, with you its names, with me it’s the numbers.
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I expect we’ll run slap over you and if it goes otherwise I’ll be disappointed. But I won’t bloviate all over a bye son message board.
It just means we’ve made the big time. I wish UK was here to invite him to the politics forum.
Travis Hunter will say hello, that's all I got to say.
This all makes sense. However, what data are you using to make those computations? How do you account for the changes in both teams since last year?
The best part of this is the evolution of this poster in just a few hours. He came in pretending he was just a guy with a betting system dropping unbiased tips. He then admitted he’s a fan of NDSU but just because they’ve “made him a lot of money”. Now it’s coming out in full blown fanboi mode by suggesting CU needs 550 passing yards to win and that NDSU is a “College Football brain trust”.
Ok, I lied. Idiot doesn't.
Passerby
South Dakota's bitch
Of course each of you questioning the system prediction expected an answer. If you don’t want to discuss the game what’s the beef?
The basic character of the 1-8 Buffaloes has changed with changing personnel. Nobody’s arguing that. Without the change NDSU is more like a 13/14 pt favorite. The GAM system recognized that with the adjustment to BISON -4. Again what’s the beef. The system also says the 9.5 from the odds makers is really +13.5 for The Herd.
We system lovers like to call them reversals, where the odds-makers are opposite the GAM.
That 9.5 is going to be huge in any scenario where NDSU keeps it close.
The basic character of the 1-8 Buffaloes has changed with changing personnel. Nobody’s arguing that. Without the change NDSU is more like a 13/14 pt favorite. The GAM system recognized that with the adjustment to BISON -4. Again what’s the beef. The system also says the 9.5 from the odds makers is really +13.5 for The Herd.
We system lovers like to call them reversals, where the odds-makers are opposite the GAM.
That 9.5 is going to be huge in any scenario where NDSU keeps it close.
Your HC left, your team has been decimated by the portal, best overall player left, your best defensive player is out with injury. NDSU hasn’t beat a P4 team since 2016 and is no longer the cream of the short bus FCS. There are plenty of non-CU related reasons why this game is almost a double digit spread and I would argue the only reason it’s not 14-17 point spread right now is because people don’t know what CU has
Passerby
South Dakota's bitch
I am afraid you fellows have forced me into a defensive position. I don’t want to miss-represent myself. Co needs 550 yds total and 425 in the air or some combination thereof to win if they can’t shut down the average BISON day.
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