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2019-20 Pac-12 MBB Thread

Goose said:
I'm the exact opposite. ASU is the winnable game - I don't care if they're gunning for us or not. They're not a great team. Arizona is inconsistent, but they're good.
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Totally agree with your assessment — just making a prediction.

I’d be terrible at gambling, as I put too much value in the emotional situation of a game.
 
BuffsNYC said:
Those conference records seem a bit too rosy for us, the ducks, and the trees.
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You think 12-6 is too rosy for us? Our three worst games according to KP win % are:

* @ Arizona - 32%
* @ Oregon - 33%
* @ Stanford - 44%

Win% breakdown:

* Sub 45% - 3 games
* 46-60% - 2 games
* 60%+ - 10 games

Say we lose all 3 games sub 45, split the 46-60% and then drop one of the 10, that puts us exactly at 12-6. I don't think that's unrealistic at all. I see Stanford having a tricky time getting to 12-6, but that's more because I don't trust them yet. But the numbers line up with that projection honestly.

Also, The Athletic has their weekly Bubble Watch up and it's got some good stuff on the P12/CU. For the P12 right now they say Stanford, Oregon, Zona and CU are all "should be in" with OSU, Washington and USC with "work to do". Here's the Buffs write up for those of you too cheap to subscribe:

Colorado (13-3, 2-1; NET: 21, SOS: 34): The Jan. 5 home loss to Oregon State arguably says as much about the Beavers as it does about Colorado, about which there is not all that much negative to say. Beating Oregon was nice; beating Dayton in a neutral setting on Dec. 21 was significantly nicer, and the more you look at it the fewer significant holes there are to poke in this team sheet, at least at this point.
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Goose said:
You think 12-6 is too rosy for us? Our three worst games according to KP win % are:

* @ Arizona - 32%
* @ Oregon - 33%
* @ Stanford - 44%

Win% breakdown:

* Sub 45% - 3 games
* 46-60% - 2 games
* 60%+ - 10 games

Say we lose all 3 games sub 45, split the 46-60% and then drop one of the 10, that puts us exactly at 12-6. I don't think that's unrealistic at all. I see Stanford having a tricky time getting to 12-6, but that's more because I don't trust them yet. But the numbers line up with that projection honestly.

Also, The Athletic has their weekly Bubble Watch up and it's got some good stuff on the P12/CU. For the P12 right now they say Stanford, Oregon, Zona and CU are all "should be in" with OSU, Washington and USC with "work to do". Here's the Buffs write up for those of you too cheap to subscribe:
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I guess we'll see. Losing to OSU at home sort of convinced me we're not winning 4+ on the road.
 
Goose said:
The OSU loss is being overblown. Was it a good loss? No. God no. But it's not like we lost to Cal.
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Why you gotta diss Washington like that?

Goose said:
You think 12-6 is too rosy for us? Our three worst games according to KP win % are:

* @ Arizona - 32%
* @ Oregon - 33%
* @ Stanford - 44%

Win% breakdown:

* Sub 45% - 3 games
* 46-60% - 2 games
* 60%+ - 10 games

Say we lose all 3 games sub 45, split the 46-60% and then drop one of the 10, that puts us exactly at 12-6. I don't think that's unrealistic at all. I see Stanford having a tricky time getting to 12-6, but that's more because I don't trust them yet. But the numbers line up with that projection honestly.

Also, The Athletic has their weekly Bubble Watch up and it's got some good stuff on the P12/CU. For the P12 right now they say Stanford, Oregon, Zona and CU are all "should be in" with OSU, Washington and USC with "work to do". Here's the Buffs write up for those of you too cheap to subscribe:
Click to expand...

It's amazing to me that the bubble watch article is weekly. That thing is ridiculous.
 
BehindEnemyLines said:
Saw just a few minutes here and there. Same thing every time i surfed back to the game.

Nasty azz 1-3-1 zone vs a bunch of me-first athletic attempts. 'Zona players looked like they had no clue what to do against that zone.
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Actually, Arizona broke the 1-3-1 half court zone most of the night with ease and Oregon State backed out of it and went to 3-2 zone. They hung the zone back towards the basket so that Arizona struggled to feed their bigs as much as they could have. Then they came out hard on Arizona shooters. Oregon State shot 44.4% from 3 and that really opened up driving lanes for them. The Arizona D (which has been statistically good this year) didn't look good against the Beavs.

Any opponent who has to play at OSU after having played previously at Oregon is in for a tough game. Both because the Beavs are solid and because teams will have a hard time being as emotionally prepared for OSU as O.
 
LifeofaBuff said:
Actually, Arizona broke the 1-3-1 half court zone most of the night with ease and Oregon State backed out of it and went to 3-2 zone. They hung the zone back towards the basket so that Arizona struggled to feed their bigs as much as they could have. Then they came out hard on Arizona shooters. Oregon State shot 44.4% from 3 and that really opened up driving lanes for them. The Arizona D (which has been statistically good this year) didn't look good against the Beavs.

Any opponent who has to play at OSU after having played previously at Oregon is in for a tough game. Both because the Beavs are solid and because teams will have a hard time being as emotionally prepared for OSU as O.
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Thanks for the clarification on the zone type.
 
Kenpom projects a 4 way tie for first in the p12 with us, furd, Oregon, and zona at 12 and 6.
 
Darth Snow said:
**** it I want the conference championship
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We can get that with Oregon losing to non-****ty teams. I want to strengthen the conference and get 6-7 teams in the dance. Oregon can lose to UDub, USC, Furd or OSU dammit.
 
Goose said:
We can get that with Oregon losing to non-****ty teams. I want to strengthen the conference and get 6-7 teams in the dance. Oregon can lose to UDub, USC, Furd or OSU dammit.
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Maybe, maybe not. It's going to be a razor thin margin this year, so I will take contender losses wherever we can get them. **** everyone else, I want that ship. Worrying about the conference can wait till after Tad hoists the banner.

Not that I don't see your point, and I love that you are confident enough to act like a fan of a blue blood team, but GIMME THAT SHIP
 
Darth Snow said:
Maybe, maybe not. It's going to be a razor thin margin this year, so I will take contender losses wherever we can get them. **** everyone else, I want that ship. Worrying about the conference can wait till after Tad hoists the banner.

Not that I don't see your point, and I love that you are confident enough to act like a fan of a blue blood team, but GIMME THAT SHIP
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ALL of this! 100%. After blowing the game against the beaves, we needed Oregon to blow a game they should win. Buffs show up today with a W, and the trojans win, and we’re well positioned after week 3.
 
Darth Snow said:
Update: if you thought our collapse against OSU was bad, UW is trying to top that right now
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UO within 3 with under 2 minutes left.

Also, Wazzu is up double digits on OSU.

The WA schools are really hard to figure out this season.
 
How in hell was that not a travel? Pritchard is quickly becoming my most hated opposing player since that guy on **** bailer a few years ago.

And # 15 on UDub has crazy hair. It's a wonder he doesn't tip over from a high center of gravity.
 
Wow ... # 33 on UDub was as focused as anyone I've ever seen at the foul line ... hit both.
 
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